How to beat the bookies

How to beat the bookies

Basically, the logical outcome of an upcoming game plays main part, when creating odds. The bookmakers calculate and offer those odds. What is more, they evaluate the chances of lost, win or draw and offer all that, so you have it all laid in front of you. The bettors also manage all the betting payouts. In other words, they prepare all the information needed and you, as the punter, just have to go through it and place a bet.

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How the bookies work ?

Basically, the logical outcome of an upcoming game plays main part, when creating odds. The bookmakers calculate and offer those odds. What is more, they evaluate the chances of lost, win or draw and offer all that, so you have it all laid in front of you. The bettors also manage all the betting payouts. In other words, they prepare all the information needed and you, as the punter, just have to go through it and place a bet.

Bookies dive deep into the world of precise language of probabilities. Their techniques assure them a constant advantage. In other words, the idea of every bookie is to make a profit from every bet. Their basic concept is to take money in, whenever they lay a bet to a client, and they pay money out every time a bet is won.

The outcome of a sports event can’t be foreseen or fabricated by the bookie. However, they have the knowledge and capability to control the amount, which they stand to win or lose on any particular result. Their odds enables them to ensure a profit from every bet. By doing all that, they trade the market over 100%.

To help you visualise, here is an example with two equal teams – A and B:

– before the bookie interferes, the odds might look like:

7/4 (2.75) Team A 36.36% chance of winning
13/5 (3.60) Draw 27.70% chance of winning
7/4 (2.75) Team B 36.36% chance of winning


– after the bookies slightly alter the odds in their favor, it will look a bit different:

6/4 (2.50) Team A 40.00% chance of winning
12/5 (3.40) Draw 29.40% chance of winning
6/4 (2.50) Team B 40.00% chance of winning


Why bookies are better than us ?

Bookies outclass the normal betters with their offers. They always have two sides with equal number of bets – winning and losing side. With the money from the loses, they cover the wins and the received commissions they keep as a profit. By evening out the number of bets placed on each team is one of their winning strategy. However, the attempts of the bookmakers in that direction are not always profitable for them. Their offered odds are a bit different from the statistical probability of an event.

There is something else, when trying to win against the bookies you better have a strategy. Situations where you just pop into a betting shop or simply log into your online betting account, usually end up with you losing money to the bettor. Bare in mind, that they design odds always in their favor. However, even if you have everything figured out, but you lack patience to let’s say check what’s offered by various bookmakers, you will most probably lose against them.

Here is an example, how bookies excel us in on the betting market. You have two straws. You need to pick the short one. That is 50/50 chance on either outcome. You bet 10 euro to win 10, right? That makes a 100% market. However, as we mentioned earlier, bettor’s market go above 100%. They offer odds below 2.0, which automatically means, that you have to bet more, to win the same amount. If the odds were offered at 1.91, you will have to pay 11 to win 10. Now the market is higher than 100%, it is 104.7% and the bookie’s margin is 4.7%.

Plungers craft the betting strategies almost to perfection. That is their way to bend the outcomes in their favour. With other words, the bookie’s profit is a margin, called overround. It can be different %. As you all know, a single game or event has various outcomes. When you combine all that and add the total of all priced probabilities. That is how the the overround works. Before you place your bet, have in mind that, a great part of the betting market exists, thanks to that rule. If that still sounds a bit confusing, here are some examples to help you understand how it works. Let’s say, that the overround is 6% and the accumulator bet is threefold (win, draw and loss), the compound interest will be 19.1%. Here is the formula:

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1.06 ^ 3 – 1 = 1.06 x 1.06 x 1.06 – 1 = 1.191 to 1 = 19.1%

Here, the profit for the bookie is with margin 19.1%, where each individual bet is with overround of 6%. The overall probability of every combination equals all individual probabilities multiplied together. Here is an example with real data and bookie’s data:

with five possible outcomes of a game
52.8% x 45.9% x 64.9% x 54.7% x 43.7% = 3.76%

here, 3.76% means all five wins will happen only once in every 25 betting. Like that, the bookie will lose 24 times. Don’t you think that is a good reason to tip the scales in their favour? That is what they do and here are the five possible outcomes, when bettors are involved:

59.88% x 48.78% x 55.56% x 64.52% x 51.28% = 5.37%

At the end of it, the overround or profit margin for the bookmaker is:

odds probability (5.37%) divided by true probability (3.76%) minus 1 = 42.8%

Have all that in mind when you decide to place a bet next time. Make sure you think things through. Make your research and avoid betting, based on spontaneous decisions. After all, you are playing against the real chances for winning and the ones of the bettor.

How to make our winning chances better ?

Gaining the maximum of your gambling experience enquires a lot of concentration and laying your bets sensibly. By watching and following other players, teams etc. too, you get wider picture of the market and the result possibilities. You have a better understanding of the potential outcomes. However, even if you favour different sports, make sure you bet on the ones you know in details.

It is quite important to know what the variables are, before betting. They are likely to change the outcome of a game you are about to bet on. Make sure you are at least familiar with them. Like that, you can decide how much and if you will consider them a part of your betting strategy at all.

Talking about strategies, make sure you don’t follow the good or bad team one. Sometimes bad teams can win you the bet, sometimes good ones can cost you. Make sure you judge not only one game, but the whole performance of a team. Even the bookies don’t bother to make the odds of the favor team more tempting. After all, numerous people will bet on the certain winner. Conversely, it is quite the challenge to persuade the bettors to put their money in favor of the bad teams. Bear that in mind and don’t always avoid the underdogs.

Make sure you keep your eyes wide open for teams, that are still counting on a former glory. In those cases, they are not capable of keeping up with their fame as they did in the past. You need to be on the cutting edge of recognizing when the former glory will lead to a loss. Reputation is not always a good thing, when it comes to gambling.

When talking about winning and losing, there is always an underdog. Often there are real reasons why a team is a dog. However, there are games, where it is difficult to see which of both teams has true edge. Picking an underdog gives you the chance to come out ahead, even if you betted on the wrong one. That is because in many cases, the reason for the team to be an underdog has no effect on the game at all.

More thorough analysis for future events

As you all probably know, not every game has the same significance. Some are game changing for the certain competition, some are just to draw attention. When sensing which team is in what phase, is more likely to tip the game in your favour.

However, following the health and injuries of the less-celebrated players can play major role in the outcome of the game. There is another thing like a player nursing an injury, that affect their level of efficacy. It is important not to miss out the contradiction, like when a key-player’s performance is affected by an old injury and when a less-celebrated one is injured for that articular game. What is more, keep an eye on the key positions and star players. There is a player, who can be so good, that can take over a game playing solo. That can bring you a winning stake. Bare in mind, that if your bet is motivated by the fame of a certain player, the bookies are well aware too. They don’t have to make the odds so tempting. Anyways, you are free to bet on a team, if your favourite player is the star, as long as that doesn’t blind side you from the other players and positions, that can also affect the outcome of the game.

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Don’t bet with all your bank… Use staking plan

Strange and yet so true, people who bet have other opinion about money. It is important for you not to forget how you earned them and how much are you willing to spend on betting. If you think in that direction, it will help you be a selective bettor. When you combine that with knowledge in the gambling scope, it will help you put your money at the right place. What is more, betting is all about calculation and picking games, that swing the odds in your favour. By taking that seriously, you will not put your bankroll in jeopardy. Here are some advices how not to bet all your money at once and try to keep your bets small. To be able to do that, you also have to be patient. You need to raise the bets accordingly and sensibly in proportion with your bank account.

It is important which betting system you adopt. Make sure it is simple and easy to follow. Have in mind, that the odds on the favorite teams are usually low. Those low odds grant low payouts and therefore dwindle your bank account. Actually, it is quite unlikely to make money without putting serious thought on when you stake and how much. Here is where a staking plan waltz in. It is created to help you make decisions regarding the amounts you bet, not to which team you bet it on.

Here are some suggestions for staking plans. They are pretty much divided into fixed and variable staking.

The fixed ones suggest you bet a fixed stake every time. That sounds straightforward and it is. Plans of such kind are more suitable for beginners and recreational bettors. There are to aspects to the fixed plans – percentage and level staking. The difference is that with the first one you stake a certain percentage of your bankroll for every bet, and the second one is staking an exact amount of money. The percentage is more rational. With it, your stake raises and decreases proportionally to your bankroll. Like that, you will stake steady higher amounts when you win and preserve your money in the bank for a maximum length of time.

The variable staking plans are more advanced. They take into consideration a lot of criteria like previous losses, confidence of winning, expected values and the potential return. If you are betting on confidence, stick to the lower percentage of your betting scale (less than 5%). The reason for going with lower units of the scale (1% or 2%) is wiser, because of your multiple units staking. In other words, the staking plans have the mission to help you figure an optimal amount out. This amount to be a percentage of your bankroll and count the odds of the wager and the options for winning.

Surebet (Betting arbitrage) and how to get all them advantage of it ?

That is also known as betting arbitrage. With other words, regardless of the result of the game, your set of bets guarantees an income, which is no less than the total amount of bets. Well if you don’t win, at least you don’t lose as well. Surebet helps distribute your money, ensuring an increase of your winnings in some games and return your total bets in every other situation. Let’s say you bet 100 euro divided by 3 not equal amounts and you place a bet on all 3 outcomes of a single game – win, loss and draw. By placing your higher sum on the lowest odd and continue to the lowest sum on the highest odd. Like that, you will have about 1% win out of every scenario. Usually every surebet brings you profit of 1 to 3%.

However, surebets have their pitfalls, that you have to watch out for. Usually to guarantee yourself a win-win situation, you will have to be able to use the surebet shoulders. Sometimes that option is limited by the bookie. By that meaning not allowing more than one bet per client, they have other system and refuse to accept bets, that contradict with it and so on. It is also important to double check, if the surebet is profitable and the bookie reliable. There is a chance not to get payed by an unreliable bookie, if the profits are high.

As it was mentioned earlier, bookmakers love to make money. They will not be very pleased, of you manage to walk away with solid amount of money very often. That is why they invent all kinds of obstacles, preventing the payment. They actually make money out of commissions and fees. That is why surebets are in a way much safer way to place a bet. You will need to be constantly updating your information and do thorough analyzes on your bets.

Bookie selection and where to bet ?

It is a good idea to do a research. In this business reputation is one of the main advantages, that can help you pick the proper bookie. Make sure you read the reviews. With the information from them, we can easily help our choice. For example, when seeing a bookie that has low minimum deposit, it means is more for beginners. On the contrary, if the minimum deposit is high, the bookie pampers advanced punters. You will have to research which bookmaker offers what market. Major markets are covered by major bookies, but if you are looking for a certain one, you will have to find the proper one for that purpose. Also, pay attention to the customer service. It plays huge role in that business. That is because there are many technicalities, that can pop up and disturb your registration, payment and so on. While doing your research, check the withdrawal timing. It is a good idea to be aware of the time from you winning and the platform paying you. For some of them is within the day, for others up to 5 days. What is more, all the above makes no sense, if the webpage of the bookie of your choice is hard to figure out. One of the main points in picking a online bookie is the ease of use. After all, it will be good if you can place your bets easily, without too many steps on the way. Here comes another comfortable feature – a mobile app. If you are a fan of placing bets on the move or while watching the game, look for a bookie with frequently updated, functional and hip app.

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